Friday, March 4, 2011

Trader Update - data point 04 March 2011-

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 remains in Up-condition with positive C-RSI 30 +10.87 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'uptick' in high expansion territory

-Institutions switch to accumulate from neutral, potential for new uptrend
-New Lows: 4 remain below danger 26-zone
-Leadership stock ratio: +1.65 positive bullish advantage
-VIX 18.60 below 20 current market stress level

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

Todays' Session

...the SPX 500 gapped down at the Open to test short term support *1320 but upticks above support were indecisive. Consequently, the index dived further to have a go at the August 2008 Peak support *1313, currently holding expected in yesterday's update, the market appears to have to do more consolidating work between the lower channel support current *1295 on the dly. 6-mth trading setup and the February 18 Peak *1344 before a bullish break-out can occur

...given the volatile trading (reversal-reversal-reversal) environment and elevated risk of an exogenous shock out of North Africa and the Middle East, a top may be already in place, but needs to be confirmed with a decisive break below *1294

Kind Regards

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