Trader Update - data point 03 March 2011 -

 

Trading Environment:

-SPX 500 remains in Up-condition with positive C-RSI 30 +6,55 strength

-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows at 'weakened level' in high expansion territory

-New Lows: 17 remain below danger 26-zone
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.37 positive bullish advantage

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9

-VIX  Close 20.07 above 20 resistance signals increasing market stress with D/Vol sideways conflict

-Institutions neutral and (0.91% to bull market support in 'Core')

-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

    SPX 500 up-condition at elevated risk level 

Today's Session:

...the SPX 500 added more power to its bounce up from the February 25 Low *1294 and currently trades above the February 27 High *1319_February 23 High *1322_*1325 congestion, within striking distance of the March 1 High *1332

...below March 1 High *1332, risk remain for a subsequent down draft that would target lower channel support current *1294 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_February 1 Low *1286_ potential to spike down to January 30 High *1275

...a successful defense of *1294/ *1286/*1275 should provide the foundation for another rally into June with upper channel resistance current *1379 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup; potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective

...on the flip side, trading above *1332 will set the index up for a re-test of the February 18 Peak *1344 before risks of downturn are increasing again

Kind Regards

Update Session End:

...today's power rally confirms the February 24 Low *1294 as a bottom and the index is likely to follow through higher for a re-test of the February 18 Peak *1344 before risks of downturn are increasing again
 A Close above the *1344 level introduces the potential for more upside targeting upper channel resistance current *1380 on the dly. 6-mth trading set-up with scope to reach towards the *1400 psych barrier coinciding with upper channel resistance in the 1yr. dly. trading setup

...however given the volatile trading environment and elevated risk of an exogenous shock out of North Africa and the Middle East, a consolidation between *1294/*1344 appears logical until the February 18 Peak eats dust

Kind Regards