Monday, March 7, 2011

Trader Update - data point 07 March 2011 -

Trading Environment:
SPX 500 moving towards March 19 apex dly. 6-mth. frame 
-New Lows: 11 - below danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-SPX 500 in Up-condition on positive C-RSI 30 +8.22 strength
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'downtick' in high expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +1.08 positive bullish advantage  
-VIX 19.06 below 20 current market stress level

Confirming weakness:

-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _ C-RSI 4 below C-RSI 9
-Institutions neutral
-U.S. Dollar approaches a major support
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-

USD -test _ March 11 Saudi 'Day of Rage' to be resolved this week

Todays' Session:

...after a weak *1321 Friday Close, the weak undercurrent dominates trading. The SPX 500 violated the August 2008 and is currently moving in for a test of the Mar 2 Low *1303 

...risk lingers for follow-through lower this week to affirm lower channel support current *1295 in the dly. 6-mth. frame _ the February 18 Peak *1344 before a bullish break-out may occur.Watch for further short term weakness on a violation of *1303

Note: given the volatile trading environment and elevated risk of an exogenous shock out of North Africa and the Middle East, a top may be already in place, but needs to be confirmed with a decisive break below *1294

Kind Regards

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