Friday, July 8, 2011

Trader Update - data point 8 July 2011-

Broadening Top pattern_possible H&S

Confirming Strength:

-SPX 500 1st. July_BUY - Condition_markets over-extended
-SPX 500_C-RSI 30 +7.8 - C-RSI 9 > C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'uptick' in mid-expansion
-Institutional selling action_down trend
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'uptick' in positive
-New Lows: 7 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +5.96_positive NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock/Broad market stock ratio: +5.47 bullish

NOTE: Leadership Stocks ratio at 6-month High yesterday_NYA C-RSI 6-month negative divergent

-New Highs Trending Indicator: 214 > 180 minimum target

NOTE: Negative divergence from February to now between the New Highs and S&P 500

Confirming Weakness:
-VIX 16.34 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'

---------------------------------- recommend:
Traders: positive intraday bias_over-extended markets
Conservative: remain in Cash until Over-extension resolved_ despite 1st. July Buy Condition

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 increasing

...worsening overbought conditions and a current VIX (15.91) still unable to wipe out the 15.23 long term support leaves the market short of a clean bull picture - risks of a larger pullback increasing in a market heading towards the May High *1375 with short term support *1326

...the SPX 500 bashing at the start of todays session lacked follow through strength - above short term 6 July support *1331 - additional strength can be expected to keep the push towards the May Peak *1375 alive - a short consolidation in the July 6 *1331 support and July 7 High *1356 parameters possible

Kind Regards

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