Thursday, July 7, 2011

Trader Update -data point 7 July 2011-

...unless the VIX aborts this pattern within the next few days (by moving sideways or lower), then the market will start to increase its risk and fear levels

Confirming Strength:

-SPX 500 1st. July_BUY - Condition_markets overbought
-SPX 500_C-RSI 30 +5.57 - C-RSI 9 > C-RSI 30
-Long Term Trending Fed- /Foreign net- Liquidity Inflows_'downtick' in mid-expansion
-Institutional selling action_down trend
-Short term liquidity trend: 'uptick' in positive_daily inflows 'downtick' in positive
-New Lows: 14 < 28 danger zone < panic zone 50
-NYSE_(= hft-zone)_C-RSI 30 +4.05_positive NYA-Momentum
-Leadership stock/Broad market stock ratio: +2.99 bullish

Confirming Weakness:

-VIX 16.34 > 15.23 support < 20 stress level_long-term resistance 24.65_D/Vol 'uptick'
-New Highs Trending Indicator: 156 < 180 minimum target

---------------------------------- recommend:
Traders: positive intraday bias_overbought markets
Conservative: remain in Cash until Overbought resolved_ despite 1st. July Buy Condition

Today's Session:

hedged *1378 increasing

...the SPX 500 sliced comfortably through the June 1 High *1345 - appears set to challenge the May High *1371

...worsening overbought conditions and a current VIX (15.91) still unable to wipe out the 15.23 long term support leaves the market short of a clean bull picture - risks of a larger pullback increasing in a market heading towards the May High with short term support *1326

...a successful defense in the *1326 support should motivate the market to take out the May High *1371 to trade higher towards the *1400 Psych barrier initially

Kind Regards

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