Trader Update -data point 12 December 2011-

...8 December 2011 price action trapped the bears 5 points below the hourly 200-dsma -nice shake-out- respecting the daily 21-dsma current *1227.28 and the 50-dsma current *1219.85

...the Vix tested the *30.16 resistance but without having set a lower Low first below *24.44 - the rising 200-dsma sits currently *25.55

...daily price action sits way overbought - high risk for any up-move to be met with a selling rout

...small speculators are the main driver of this current rally

...as a result, short term up-side potential to meet the 8 November 2011 High *1277 as long as the index remains above the 21-dsma current *1227.28 and 50-dsma current *1219.85 - high risk however, trading a break-out above the 200-dsma in an extremely over extended daily market - despite Friday's bullish display (Trin *0.65), a repeat challenge of the 3 August 2011 Low *1234.55 cannot be ruled out  - pull backs to above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities
Kind Regards